Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins erased a 66 percent pre-game win probability disadvantage for the home Brewers and left American Family Field with an 8-6 victory on August 7, 2026, handing Milwaukee a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately placed at zero percent likelihood of a Brewers win by the final out. The Twins trailed early but seized control through two pivotal contributions from first baseman Josh Bell, whose third-inning home run off Shane Drohan added 13.2 percent to Minnesota's win probability and whose sixth-inning single off Antonio Senzatela added another 14.5 percent, giving Bell a game-high plus-30.0 percent WPA and a plus-3.2 RE24 that stood as the clearest individual driver of the outcome.

Milwaukee's best chance to flip the game came and went in the bottom of the eighth, when Jackson Chourio grounded into a double play off Andrew Morris, a sequence that swung win probability by minus-23.3 percent against the Brewers and effectively sealed Minnesota's lead. Luis Lara's strikeout against Jeff Hoffman in the seventh, a minus-14.5 percent swing, further deflated a Brewers lineup that could not sustain its early three-run second-inning advantage. On the Milwaukee side, Garrett Mitchell's groundout to end the ninth actually registered as a plus-14.4 percent WPA event for the Twins, reflecting how thoroughly the game's leverage had shifted by that point, with Brice Turang contributing plus-17.0 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 in support.

Minnesota's bullpen was equally decisive. Andrew Morris led all pitchers with plus-13.3 percent WPA, his eighth-inning work proving the most consequential single frame of the contest. Bryse Wilson added plus-9.3 percent WPA and Jeff Hoffman plus-8.8 percent, a collective relief effort that held a Milwaukee offense — which had produced nine hits and six runs — scoreless over the game's final four innings and turned what the model had framed as a comfortable home-team advantage into a Twins road win.