San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 10 | 15 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks routed the San Diego Padres 10-4 at Chase Field on August 5, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 56% pre-game home win probability into a near-certain outcome by the middle innings. Arizona did all of its damage in two bursts, plating two runs in the third and then blowing the game open with six more in the fourth, building a 10-0 advantage that San Diego could only partially chip away at with a four-run ninth when the contest was already decided. The Padres finished with just three hits against Arizona's pitching staff, and the D-backs answered with 15 hits of their own, committing no errors on either side.
The turning point came in the bottom of the third, when Tim Tawa connected on a home run off Casey Mize that swung win probability 10.2 points in Arizona's favor. The bottom of the fourth buried the Padres entirely, with Corbin Carroll's single off Mize adding another 7.7 points to Arizona's probability. San Diego's chances in that same fourth inning evaporated quickly, as Jackson Merrill grounded into a double play against Mitch Bratt that cost the Padres 5.8 points of win probability, and Ty France followed with a flyout that bled off another 4.0 points. Manny Machado's walk off Bratt added 4.4 points to San Diego's ledger in that frame, but it amounted to little in a lopsided sequence.
Carroll finished as the game's most impactful bat, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-12.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.8 to lead all position players. Tawa contributed plus-8.2 WPA, while Machado added plus-4.6 despite the Padres' broader offensive failure. On the mound, Mitch Bratt was the single most valuable contributor in the game by WPA, accumulating plus-12.7 in win probability added as he held San Diego in check through the critical middle innings and allowed Arizona's offensive cushion to stand.