Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 on August 4, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 66 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the game's end. The contest was decided largely through a four-inning stretch in which both starting pitchers absorbed significant damage, setting the foundation for a Milwaukee victory that was never seriously threatened in the late innings.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the third and fourth innings. Jackson Chourio's home run off Jared Jones in the bottom of the third was the game's second-largest win-probability swing, adding 11.2 percent in Milwaukee's favor, and Andrew Vaughn followed with a solo home run off Jones in the bottom of the fourth that added another 11.4 percent. A Chourio single later in that same frame contributed an additional 10.4 percent swing, a cluster of damage that effectively buried Pittsburgh's chances. Pittsburgh had briefly responded through Jacob Gonzalez, whose home run off Logan Henderson in the top of the third added 10.5 percent for the Pirates, and Endy Rodriguez's solo shot off Henderson in the fifth added 11.1 percent, but neither was enough to overcome Milwaukee's cushion.

Chourio was the game's most impactful individual performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-20.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.9. Rodriguez led Pittsburgh's offense with a WPA of plus-17.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.1, while Vaughn contributed plus-12.7 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 for Milwaukee. On the pitching side, Abner Uribe paced the Brewers' bullpen with a WPA of plus-8.1, followed by Antonio Senzatela at plus-7.2 and Trevor Megill at plus-6.3, as Milwaukee's relief corps held the Pirates scoreless from the sixth inning through the ninth.