Athletics at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-4 at Great American Ball Park on August 4, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had anticipated from the start, with a pre-game home win probability set at 62 percent. The Athletics threatened early, scoring once in the fourth and twice in the fifth before Cincinnati responded with three runs of its own in the bottom of the fifth to retake the lead. Oakland answered with a run in the seventh to pull within one, setting the stage for a pivotal eighth inning that effectively decided the outcome.

The swing of the game arrived in the bottom of the eighth, when Eugenio Suárez drew a walk off Hogan Harris that shifted win probability by 35.8 percentage points, the single largest play of the contest. That moment capped a sequence that put the Reds ahead for good, 5-3, and pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate to near certainty. Earlier, Jacob Wilson had given Athletics fans reason for optimism with a fifth-inning double off Brady Singer that added 18.2 percentage points of win probability, and Lawrence Butler reached on a fielding error in the seventh, worth 16.5 percentage points. But Butler also represented the final threat's end, striking out against Emilio Pagán in the ninth at a cost of 10.9 percentage points.

Suárez finished as the game's top performer by win-probability added at plus 33.0 percent with an RE24 of plus 1.4, while Sal Stewart contributed meaningfully with a fifth-inning sacrifice fly off J.T. Ginn worth 11.4 percentage points of win probability, finishing at plus 19.4 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Elly De La Cruz also factored in prominently at plus 16.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Emilio Pagán closed the door most effectively, posting the top pitching WPA on the night at plus 15.2 percent, with Brady Basso and Julian Garcia adding plus 9.7 and plus 7.4 percent, respectively, as Cincinnati held on despite being outpaced in hits 8 to 5.