MLB Recap · August 2, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

PIT2
Final
CIN10

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT000100010240
CIN31320001-10100

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds routed the Pittsburgh Pirates 10-2 at Great American Ball Park on August 2, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win from 52 percent before first pitch to a virtual certainty at 100 percent by game's end. The Reds struck early and often, plating three runs in the first inning, adding one in the second, and then pushing across three more in the third to put the game effectively out of reach against a Pittsburgh staff that offered little resistance. Pittsburgh managed just four hits and two runs across nine innings, scoring once in the fourth and once in the eighth, never mounting a meaningful threat.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the opening frames. On the Pittsburgh side, Nick Gonzales recorded the single costliest plate appearance of the night, a lineout off Chase Burns in the top of the second that carried a win-probability swing of negative 7.8 percent, snuffing out any early Pirate momentum. Cincinnati answered immediately, as a Tyler Stephenson strikeout in the bottom half paradoxically registered as the game's second-largest batting-team swing at plus 7.1 percent, reflecting the run-expectancy context of that at-bat within a productive inning. A Noelvi Marte pop out in the first also graded at plus 5.8 percent in Cincinnati's favor, while Ke'Bryan Hayes delivered a home run off Mitch Keller in the second worth plus 4.8 percent, and Elly De La Cruz singled off Noah Murdock in the third for an additional plus 4.4 percent.

Chase Burns was the clear individual standout, posting a plus 13.2 percent WPA as the game's top-graded pitcher, methodically limiting Pittsburgh's offense and keeping the Reds' advantage intact throughout his outing. Among hitters, Tyler Stephenson led all players at plus 9.6 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, while Noelvi Marte contributed plus 7.9 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.1. Nathaniel Lowe provided the most run-context value of any batter with a plus 2.5 RE24 alongside plus 4.9 percent WPA. Zach McCambley and Camilo Doval each finished at plus 0.0 percent WPA in relief, holding the line after the outcome had long since been decided.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalCIN win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nick Gonzales Lineout
Top 2nd · off Chase Burns
-7.8%
Tyler Stephenson Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Mitch Keller
+7.1%
Noelvi Marte Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Mitch Keller
+5.8%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Mitch Keller
+4.8%
Elly De La Cruz Single
Bot 3rd · off Noah Murdock
+4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Tyler Stephenson+9.6%+1.9 RE24
Noelvi Marte+7.9%-0.1 RE24
Nathaniel Lowe+4.9%+2.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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