MLB Recap · August 1, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

PIT4
Final
CIN1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT003001000461
CIN000010000130

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Cincinnati Reds a 4-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on August 1, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 51 percent home win probability down to zero. Pittsburgh struck for three runs in the third inning, the pivotal frame of the game, with back-to-back walks drawn by Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds off Andrew Abbott each shifting the win-probability needle by 10.0 and 8.3 percentage points respectively in the Pirates' favor. The lone Cincinnati response came in the fifth inning, when Jose Trevino connected on a home run off Braxton Ashcraft, a swing that added 10.6 percentage points of win probability to the Reds' ledger, briefly narrowing the gap before Pittsburgh answered with a Henry Davis single off Zach McCambley in the sixth that pushed the margin back out by 8.7 percentage points. Eugenio Suárez kept Cincinnati's hopes flickering in the seventh with a double off Carmen Mlodzinski worth 8.1 percentage points, but the Pirates held firm the rest of the way.

Pittsburgh's most impactful performers on the day were Davis, Suárez, and Lowe by WPA, with Davis leading all position players at plus-11.3 percentage points and a RE24 of plus-0.9. On the pitching side, Carmen Mlodzinski was the DiamondIQ model's top-valued arm despite surrendering the Suárez double, finishing with a WPA of plus-17.5 percentage points, followed by Braxton Ashcraft at plus-11.5. The Pirates finished with six hits against three for Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh's three-run third ultimately proved to be more than enough against a Reds offense that managed just one extra-base hit across nine innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalCIN win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jose Trevino Home Run
Bot 5th · off Braxton Ashcraft
+10.6%
Brandon Lowe Walk
Top 3rd · off Andrew Abbott
+10.0%
Henry Davis Single
Top 6th · off Zach McCambley
+8.7%
Top 3rd · off Andrew Abbott
+8.3%
Eugenio Suárez Double
Bot 7th · off Carmen Mlodzinski
+8.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Henry Davis+11.3%+0.9 RE24
Eugenio Suárez+10.1%+0.1 RE24
Brandon Lowe+9.7%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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