Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Cincinnati Reds a 4-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on August 1, 2026, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 51 percent home win probability down to zero. Pittsburgh struck for three runs in the third inning, the pivotal frame of the game, with back-to-back walks drawn by Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds off Andrew Abbott each shifting the win-probability needle by 10.0 and 8.3 percentage points respectively in the Pirates' favor. The lone Cincinnati response came in the fifth inning, when Jose Trevino connected on a home run off Braxton Ashcraft, a swing that added 10.6 percentage points of win probability to the Reds' ledger, briefly narrowing the gap before Pittsburgh answered with a Henry Davis single off Zach McCambley in the sixth that pushed the margin back out by 8.7 percentage points. Eugenio Suárez kept Cincinnati's hopes flickering in the seventh with a double off Carmen Mlodzinski worth 8.1 percentage points, but the Pirates held firm the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh's most impactful performers on the day were Davis, Suárez, and Lowe by WPA, with Davis leading all position players at plus-11.3 percentage points and a RE24 of plus-0.9. On the pitching side, Carmen Mlodzinski was the DiamondIQ model's top-valued arm despite surrendering the Suárez double, finishing with a WPA of plus-17.5 percentage points, followed by Braxton Ashcraft at plus-11.5. The Pirates finished with six hits against three for Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh's three-run third ultimately proved to be more than enough against a Reds offense that managed just one extra-base hit across nine innings.