Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds edged the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-7 at Great American Ball Park on July 31, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested before an explosive eighth inning settled matters. The DiamondIQ model opened with Cincinnati holding a modest 52 percent pre-game home win probability, a figure that fluctuated dramatically before reaching 100 percent at the final out.

The eighth inning defined the contest entirely. Pittsburgh struck first in the frame, stringing together singles from Henry Davis, Brandon Lowe, and Jake Mangum off Pierce Johnson, each carrying win-probability swings of 18.3, 18.0, and 16.5 percentage points respectively, as the Pirates pushed across three runs to pull within striking distance. Cincinnati answered immediately in the bottom half. Sal Stewart's single off Wilber Dotel delivered the most impactful swing of the night at plus-28.5 percentage points, and Nathaniel Lowe followed with a fielders choice off Mason Montgomery that added another 18.5 points, completing a three-run Reds rally that proved to be the decisive sequence. The two teams had traded runs throughout, with Pittsburgh scoring twice in the first, Cincinnati answering in kind, and the Reds adding two more in the fourth before the game reached its chaotic conclusion.

Among individual performers, Sal Stewart finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-29.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Nathaniel Lowe posted a RE24 of plus-1.9 to go with his plus-21.7 percent WPA. Jake Mangum contributed meaningfully for Pittsburgh with a plus-26.7 percent WPA and the night's best RE24 among the top three at plus-1.8, though his efforts came on the losing side. On the mound, Antwone Kelly led Cincinnati's pitching staff with a plus-15.8 percent WPA contribution, followed closely by Emilio Pagán at plus-15.2 percent, with both figures reflecting their roles in preserving the one-run victory.