St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-1 on July 31, 2026, at Rogers Centre, handing St. Louis a quiet loss in a game that stayed tightly contested well into the late innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Toronto as a slim 51 percent home favorite, and the game played out as a low-scoring affair through the first four innings before the Cardinals struck first on a Jordan Walker single in the fifth, a swing that shifted win probability 8.0 percent in St. Louis's favor off Dylan Cease.

The pivotal sequence came in the seventh and eighth innings, where the game's biggest probability swings unfolded in opposite directions. Myles Straw's hit by pitch off Peter Strzelecki in the bottom of the seventh added 10.2 percent to Toronto's win probability by loading up a threatening situation, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. immediately erased that momentum with a ground into a double play that cost the Blue Jays 21.4 percent — the single most damaging play of the game by WPA measure. Toronto recovered decisively in the eighth, when Luis Urías delivered a single off Gordon Graceffo that swung win probability 17.9 percent toward the home side, the largest positive batting contribution of the night, and the Blue Jays tacked on two runs in the frame to take a 3-1 lead they would not relinquish.

Among the standout performers, Urías led all batters with a plus-17.9 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Straw contributed plus-10.2 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 despite the inning ultimately going scoreless. On the mound, Kyle Leahy posted the highest pitching WPA at plus-15.4 percent, followed by Dylan Cease at plus-14.5 percent and Jeff Hoffman at plus-10.6 percent, a trio that collectively held the Cardinals to just one run on five hits with no errors committed by either side.