Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds walked off the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 on July 30, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a virtual deadlock at first pitch — a 51 percent home win probability — all the way to certainty by the final out. The Reds broke a scoreless game in the third inning with two runs, but Pittsburgh answered with solo home runs in the fifth and sixth innings to pull even. Brandon Lowe's sixth-inning shot off Rhett Lowder was the most consequential Pittsburgh swing of the night, shifting win probability 13.6 percent in the Pirates' favor and briefly giving them a share of the lead heading into the late innings.
Cincinnati's path to victory nearly unraveled in the seventh, when Eugenio Suárez grounded into a double play against Noah Murdock — the single most damaging play of the game, costing the Reds 21.4 percent in win probability and stranding what had been a promising threat. Murdock finished as the top-performing pitcher of the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, credited with plus-15.3 percent win probability added. The Reds ultimately settled things in the ninth against Gregory Soto, with Tyler Stephenson drawing a walk to open the frame, adding 12.5 percent, before Elly De La Cruz's two-bagger swung the probability 17.5 percent toward Cincinnati. Nathaniel Lowe then delivered the decisive forceout, contributing another 15.9 percent to close it out.
Elly De La Cruz was the clear standout by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, finishing with plus-31.9 percent win probability added and a RE24 of plus-2.5 — both the best figures among position players on either side. Nathaniel Lowe followed at plus-23.8 percent WPA, while Sal Stewart added a modest plus-7.0 percent. Pittsburgh's pitching staff, led by Murdock and Emilio Pagán at plus-13.5 percent, kept the Reds in check long enough to make it a one-run game, but the bullpen could not hold the ninth as Cincinnati earned a walk-off victory on nine hits.