Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 3-1 on July 29, 2026, at Petco Park, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability from 66% to a final estimate of 100%. The game's decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fourth inning, where San Diego plated all three of its runs against Gabriel Hughes. Ty France's hit by pitch was the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus 9.7%, and Jackson Merrill followed with a single that added another 6.8%, as the Padres built what proved to be an insurmountable lead through that one productive frame.
Colorado mounted a brief challenge in the top of the seventh when Brett Sullivan singled off Bradgley Rodriguez for a plus 8.9% win-probability swing, ultimately driving the Rockies' lone run and representing the game's second-largest batting play. Hunter Goodman had a chance to extend that threat but flew out against Griffin Canning in the sixth at a cost of 8.5% win probability, ending what could have been a pivotal at-bat. Cole Carrigg drew a walk in the eighth off Jeremiah Estrada that added 7.1%, though the Rockies could not convert that opportunity into further damage.
The Padres' pitching staff was the story by WPA. Griffin Canning led all pitchers with plus 17.0% win probability added, and Jeremiah Estrada contributed plus 8.1% out of the bullpen, with Mason Miller adding another plus 6.3% to close things out. On the offensive side, Brett Sullivan finished as San Diego's top batter at plus 9.8% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, while Ty France matched that RE24 figure at plus 1.1 and contributed plus 7.7% WPA. Cole Carrigg rounded out the top performers at plus 8.5% WPA, as the Padres controlled both sides of the ball throughout the evening.