Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals walked off the Chicago Cubs 3-2 in ten innings at Busch Stadium on July 29, 2026, ending a scoreless nine-inning duel with a dramatic bottom-tenth that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a contested game to a 100% Cardinals win probability. Through nine innings neither offense could generate a run, leaving the game knotted and the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 47% home win probability essentially unchanged at the midpoint of the extra frame.
The decisive sequence unfolded entirely in the tenth inning. Pete Crow-Armstrong gave Chicago a lead with a home run off Luis Gastelum in the top half, a swing that added 56.1 percentage points of win probability to the Cubs. That lead did not survive the bottom of the inning. Iván Herrera delivered the game's single most impactful play against Trent Thornton, lacing a double that added 67.2 percentage points of win probability to St. Louis and immediately reshuffled the game's dynamics. Lars Nootbaar followed with a single off Thornton, pushing St. Louis further ahead on the win-probability ledger by 24.5 points, while Jordan Walker's forceout cost the Cardinals 10.8 points before the Cardinals ultimately secured the walk-off victory.
On the individual ledger, Herrera finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-65.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, his double representing the single play most responsible for the outcome. Crow-Armstrong led all Cubs hitters at plus-48.3 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, and Nootbaar matched that RE24 figure while posting plus-24.5 WPA. On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd led Cardinals relievers with plus-36.0 WPA, followed by Dustin May at plus-23.5 and Riley O'Brien at plus-13.5, the latter benefiting from Dansby Swanson's flyout in the ninth that cost the Cubs 12.0 percentage points of win probability at a moment when a rally would have been consequential.