Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| CWS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - | 12 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago White Sox rolled past the Houston Astros 12-3 at Rate Field on July 26, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the start, with the pre-game home win probability set at 58% and the final reading reaching 100% in favor of Chicago. The game was competitive through the middle innings but unraveled decisively in the seventh and eighth, when the White Sox piled on four and three runs respectively to put the contest well out of reach.
The pivotal swing came in the bottom of the sixth, when Miguel Vargas connected on a home run off Ronel Blanco that shifted win probability by plus-16.8 percentage points, the single largest WPA play of the game. That blow extended Chicago's lead at a moment when Houston had yet to fully concede the game. The Astros had their own bright spot earlier, as Taylor Trammell hit a solo home run off Erick Fedde in the top of the fifth to generate a plus-12.3 percentage point swing, briefly keeping Houston within reach. Jeremy Peña had also gone deep off Fedde in the third for a plus-10.6 point move, but Chicago answered immediately as Vargas grounded into a double play that same inning that erased plus-9.2 percentage points of Houston's probability. The Astros effectively surrendered any remaining momentum in the top of the sixth when Zach Dezenzo flew out against Sean Newcomb, a minus-10.6 point swing that reflected how thoroughly Chicago had controlled the decision points.
On the individual ledger, Sam Antonacci led all batters with a plus-14.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Munetaka Murakami posted plus-13.2% WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-4.9, reflecting the run-environment value he generated throughout the lineup. Taylor Trammell finished as the top Astros contributor at plus-8.1% WPA despite the team's lopsided loss. On the mound, Jordan Hicks led Chicago's pitching staff with plus-10.0% WPA, followed by Grant Taylor at plus-7.2% and Newcomb at plus-3.8%, a collective effort that held Houston to three runs on seven hits without committing an error.