New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 at Citizens Bank Park on July 25, 2026, holding a team that the DiamondIQ model had installed as a slim 51 percent pre-game favorite to a single run on seven hits while committing no errors themselves. New York scored in three separate innings — the third, sixth, and seventh — and Philadelphia's two errors factored into a night where the home side never sustained the offensive pressure needed to overturn an early deficit.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the third, when Austin Wells connected on a home run off Brian Keller, a swing that shifted win probability 10.6 percent in the Yankees' favor and set the tone for the evening. Bryce Harper had a chance to answer in the bottom half but grounded into a double play off Ryan Weathers, a play that swung win probability 7.5 percent against Philadelphia and effectively neutralized any Phillies momentum. The Yankees extended their lead in the sixth when Cody Bellinger singled off Seth Johnson for a 14.2 percent win-probability swing, and Jasson Domínguez punctuated the night in the seventh with a home run off José Alvarado worth 13.4 percent. David Bednar closed out the ninth, and a Brandon Marsh groundout to end the game registered as the final notable play, adding 14.4 percent to New York's win probability as the last threat dissolved.

By the DiamondIQ model's estimate, the Phillies' chances fell from 51 percent before first pitch to zero by game's end. Wells led all batters with a WPA of plus-13.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Bellinger contributed plus-11.8 percent WPA. Among pitchers, Paul Blackburn was the most valuable arm on the night at plus-22.1 percent WPA, with Ryan Weathers close behind at plus-18.4 percent, reflecting how thoroughly New York's pitching staff controlled the game from the third inning onward.