Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Cincinnati Reds 7-0 on July 25, 2026, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals victory moving from 58% before first pitch to a certainty of 100% by game's end. The contest was effectively decided in the bottom of the sixth inning, when six Cardinals runs crossed the plate against a Reds pitching staff that had kept the game scoreless through five. The lone hit that registered most dramatically in win-probability terms was Iván Herrera's double off Hunter Greene, which added 16.4 percentage points to St. Louis's chances and served as the single biggest swing of the night. Cincinnati had its clearest opportunity to shift momentum in the top of the fourth, where JJ Bleday singled off Andre Pallante for a 4.5-point gain, but Tyler Stephenson grounded out and Noelvi Marte lined out in sequence, costing the Reds a combined 7.8 percentage points and extinguishing the rally before it materialized. Elly De La Cruz's strikeout against Pallante in the sixth added another 3.5-point swing in St. Louis's favor.

The dominant figure of the evening was Pallante, whose WPA of plus-28.1 percentage points led all players and reflected a performance that kept Cincinnati's three-hit offense off the board across his time of work. Herrera paced the Cardinals offensively with a WPA of plus-13.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.1, while Bleday was Cincinnati's most productive bat by both WPA at plus-5.5 and RE24 at plus-1.5, though his contributions were ultimately insufficient given the team-wide offensive futility. JJ Wetherholt added a modest plus-2.7 WPA for St. Louis. Gordon Graceffo and Chase Petty each contributed neutral WPA figures out of the Cardinals bullpen as the staff combined to hold Cincinnati to three hits with one error on the Reds' side, none on St. Louis's. The model leans heavily toward outcomes like this when a team's starter neutralizes the opposition so thoroughly through the early innings before the offense erupts in a single decisive frame.