Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs edged the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 in ten innings at PNC Park on July 24, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had framed as nearly a coin flip before first pitch, with Pittsburgh carrying a 49% home win probability at the start. The game remained scoreless through four innings before the Pirates broke through with a run in the fifth, and the Cubs answered with one of their own in the sixth to level it. Neither team scored again through the ninth, setting up a decisive extra frame that swung the outcome decisively toward Chicago.

The tenth inning was where the game was truly decided. Seiya Suzuki drew a walk off Yohan Ramirez that shifted win probability by 19.1 percentage points in the Cubs' favor, and Dansby Swanson followed with the go-ahead single, a hit that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-36.7 points. Chicago plated two runs in the top of the tenth to take a 3-2 lead. Pittsburgh's response in the bottom half ended with a Bryan Reynolds lineout off Gavin Hollowell, a play that added 31.6 points to the Cubs' win probability and sealed the victory. Earlier in the game, Nick Gonzales had grounded into a double play in the seventh off Matthew Boyd, a sequence that cost the Pirates 16.2 points of win probability and proved consequential in hindsight.

Among individual performers, Henry Davis was the Cubs' most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a plus-28.4% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, his contributions concentrated late in a tight game. Swanson added plus-26.8% WPA on the strength of his clutch tenth-inning single. On the mound, Matthew Boyd led all pitchers with plus-22.9% WPA for Chicago, followed by Jared Jones at plus-16.4% and Gregory Soto at plus-13.5%, a trio that collectively suppressed Pittsburgh across the critical middle and late innings.