Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves outlasted the Baltimore Orioles 7-6 in ten innings on July 24, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had given Baltimore a 43 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The Orioles held a narrow lead heading into extras, but the Braves exploded for four runs in the top of the tenth to take command. The decisive blow came from Matt Olson, whose home run off Andrew Kittredge swung win probability by 34.4 percent in Atlanta's favor. Joey Bart followed with a single off Kittredge that added another 32.0 percent, effectively sealing the outcome before Baltimore ever came to bat in the bottom half.
The Orioles mounted a three-run response in the bottom of the tenth, but Atlanta reliever Dylan Lee closed the door when Sam Huff struck out to end the game, a result that added 31.6 percent to the Braves' win probability. Earlier in the contest, Drake Baldwin had kept Atlanta alive with a home run off Rico Garcia in the eighth inning, a swing worth 19.0 percent in win probability, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand's double off Grant Holmes in the second had given Baltimore an early foothold worth 14.2 percent. On the pitching side, Trevor Rogers led all pitchers in WPA at plus 19.9 percent, followed by Tyler Wells at plus 13.5 percent and Elieser Hernández at plus 12.4 percent, a trio that collectively held Baltimore in check long enough for Atlanta's late offense to take over.
Among individual performers, Olson finished with a game-high plus 29.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.5, reflecting the tangible run-value impact of his extra-inning blast. Bart contributed plus 31.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4, making him central to the Braves' decisive rally. Huff led all players with plus 31.6 percent WPA despite a RE24 of minus 0.1, a figure that underscores how his strikeout to end the game carried enormous leverage even as Baltimore's three-run rally fell one run short of forcing an eleventh inning.