Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins erased a one-run deficit in extra innings to defeat the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 on July 23, 2026, at Progressive Field, handing the home side a loss despite Cleveland entering with a 57 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Guardians scored first, as Patrick Bailey connected on a home run off Taj Bradley in the bottom of the fifth for what proved to be a brief lead. Minnesota answered with a run in the eighth on an Alan Roden single off Cade Smith, a hit that shifted win probability 13.3 points toward the Twins, and the game remained knotted at one through the ninth, tenth, and eleventh innings.

The decisive damage came in the twelfth, where Trevor Larnach and Luke Keaschall dismantled Cleveland's relief effort against Erik Sabrowski. Larnach's single was the single most impactful offensive play of the night, swinging win probability 29.5 points in Minnesota's favor, while Keaschall followed with a single of his own for an additional 19.4-point swing. The Twins pushed across two runs in the frame to secure the 3-1 final. A critical missed opportunity for Cleveland had come in the bottom of the ninth, when Josh Bell grounded into a double play off Cade Smith, a sequence that cost the Guardians 18.2 points of win probability and extinguished what could have been a walk-off situation.

Individually, Trevor Larnach led all position players with a plus-26.9 percent WPA, followed closely by Luke Keaschall at plus-26.2 percent and Alan Roden at plus-17.4 percent. On the pitching side, Gavin Williams was the standout by the DiamondIQ model's accounting at plus-34.6 percent WPA, with Taj Bradley adding plus-22.4 percent and Cade Smith contributing plus-14.2 percent despite surrendering the eighth-inning run.