Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 10-6 defeat at Busch Stadium on June 25, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 53 percent home-team proposition into a complete Cardinals collapse, with Arizona's win probability climbing to 100 percent by the final out. The Diamondbacks scored in just four of nine innings but did their damage in concentrated bursts, plating three in the fourth, one in the fifth, five in the eighth, and one in the ninth against a Cardinals pitching staff that could not contain Arizona's lineup across multiple frames.
The decisive sequence arrived in the fourth inning, where Tyler Locklear delivered the game's most consequential blow, a home run off Michael McGreevy that swung win probability 23.2 points in Arizona's favor. That same inning, Adrian Del Castillo followed with a double worth 11.7 percentage points, and the Cardinals' Tim Tawa contributed an 8.5-point swing against his own team via a sac fly, further compounding St. Louis's deficit. McGreevy continued to struggle into the fifth, when Corbin Carroll laced a triple that added another 9.7 points to Arizona's probability edge. Del Castillo extended the damage in the eighth with a single off Justin Bruihl worth 7.4 points, part of a five-run frame that effectively ended any Cardinals hopes.
Locklear finished as Arizona's top performer by a significant margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-26.3 and a RE24 of plus-2.6, while Del Castillo was nearly as impactful at plus-16.1 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Brandon Pfaadt led Arizona's staff with a plus-14.1 WPA contribution, followed by Brandyn Garcia at plus-8.8. Jordan Walker provided the Cardinals' lone notable offensive bright spot, generating plus-5.8 WPA, but St. Louis could never generate the sustained offense needed to overcome a Diamondbacks lineup that finished with 16 hits and committed no errors.