Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Seattle Mariners a 5-3 defeat at T-Mobile Park on July 22, 2026, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Seattle a 57 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The Reds struck first in the fourth inning when JJ Bleday connected on a home run off Emerson Hancock, a swing that shifted win probability 11.3 percent in Cincinnati's favor, and Dane Myers followed with a single that added another 10.5 percent. Seattle answered in the bottom half as Luke Raley lined a single off Brady Singer to claw 19.6 percent of win probability back for the Mariners, keeping the game within reach at 2-2 through six innings.

The decisive moment arrived in the top of the seventh, when Sal Stewart turned a Eduard Bazardo offering into a three-run home run, a single swing that vaulted Cincinnati's win probability by 44.4 percent and effectively settled the outcome. Stewart finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-41.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.2. Raley remained Seattle's most threatening presence throughout, accumulating a WPA of plus-30.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2, and his flyout to end the ninth inning off Emilio Pagan, which registered plus-14.4 percent from the Mariners' perspective, illustrated how narrowly Seattle's final chances fell short.

On the pitching side, Brock Burke was the most valuable arm in the game by WPA, contributing plus-17.4 percent for Cincinnati. Cole Wilcox and Emerson Hancock added modest positive contributions of plus-5.0 and plus-3.1 percent respectively, though Hancock absorbed the damage from Bleday's fourth-inning shot. The Reds finished with eight hits and committed no errors, while Seattle's seven hits were not enough to overcome a Cincinnati club that did its most consequential damage in two concentrated bursts across the fourth and seventh innings.