San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves rallied past the San Diego Padres 7-6 at Truist Park on July 22, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested before a decisive eighth-inning burst sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Atlanta entering with a 63% win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out. Atlanta's offense was quiet through six innings, having scored only once in the first, before the Braves erupted for six runs in the bottom of the eighth off Wandy Peralta to turn a one-run deficit into a commanding lead. San Diego's five-run ninth came too late to matter, as Atlanta finished with 14 hits to the Padres' eight.

The game's most pivotal sequence centered on two eighth-inning doubles against Peralta. Jim Jarvis delivered the biggest swing of the night, a double that added 20.8% to Atlanta's win probability, and Brewer Hicklen followed with a double that contributed an additional 9.4%. Earlier, Jackson Merrill had given San Diego a momentary edge with a seventh-inning home run off Didier Fuentes, a swing worth plus 15.6% in win probability for the Padres. That lead evaporated entirely in the Braves' eighth-inning outburst. On the negative side, Luis Rengifo's pop out in the top of the seventh cost San Diego 12.3% in win probability, and Luis Campusano's fourth-inning double play against Martín Pérez erased 9.1%.

Among individual performers, Jarvis led all position players with a cumulative WPA of plus 16.8% and an RE24 of plus 0.8, while Merrill finished close behind at plus 16.5% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, the latter being the highest run-expectancy figure of any batter in the game. Hicklen added plus 10.7% WPA for Atlanta. On the pitching side, Michael King was the most impactful arm by WPA at plus 23.0%, followed by Martín Pérez at plus 12.0% and Dylan Lee at plus 10.6%, a trio that largely kept San Diego's lineup in check through the middle innings and set the stage for Atlanta's late surge.