MLB Recap · July 21, 2026

Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

ATH5
Final
AZ6

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
ATH0010000121590
AZ3000001002690

The Story

Arizona walked off the Athletics 6-5 in ten innings at Chase Field on July 21, 2026, completing a comeback that required extra frames to settle. The DiamondIQ model had Arizona as a 63 percent pregame favorite, and while that edge briefly evaporated in the late innings, the model's estimate climbed to 100 percent by the time the final out was recorded.

The decisive moments were clustered in the final two innings. Jacob Wilson gave Oakland a two-run swing in the top of the ninth, his home run off Paul Sewald adding 36.3 percentage points of win probability to the Athletics' ledger and briefly threatening to close the door on Arizona. The Diamondbacks answered in the bottom of the tenth, where Max Kepler drew a walk off Luis Medina that added 38.4 percentage points — the single biggest win-probability play of the game — before Nolan Arenado followed with a single off Medina worth another 22.8 points, plating the winning run. Oakland's Tommy White and Shea Langeliers both made outs in the top of the tenth that, by retiring the side efficiently, actually shifted 23.1 and 16.4 percentage points respectively back toward the Diamondbacks, underscoring how quickly leverage shifted in that frame.

Among individual performers, Kepler finished as the game's most impactful bat with a cumulative WPA of plus-45.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-4.8, reflecting how often he appeared in high-leverage moments with runners on base. Wilson was the standout for Oakland, posting a plus-37.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7 largely on the strength of his ninth-inning shot. On the mound, Kohl Drake led Arizona's pitching staff with a plus-12.7 percent WPA, followed by Juan Morillo at plus-7.2 percent and Taylor Clarke at plus-6.4 percent. Arizona finished with nine hits and no errors, matching Oakland's hit total while converting the opportunities that ultimately mattered most.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATH bats firstFinalAZ win %ATH win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 62.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Max Kepler Walk
Bot 10th · off Luis Medina
+38.4%
Jacob Wilson Home Run
Top 9th · off Paul Sewald
+36.3%
Tommy White Flyout
Top 10th · off Kevin Ginkel
+23.1%
Nolan Arenado Single
Bot 10th · off Luis Medina
+22.8%
Shea Langeliers Groundout
Top 10th · off Kevin Ginkel
+16.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Max Kepler+45.7%+4.8 RE24
Jacob Wilson+37.1%+1.7 RE24
Tommy White+26.1%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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