Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 10-7 at Citizens Bank Park on July 20, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with a 47 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent in Philadelphia's favor. The Phillies built their advantage in two decisive bursts, with four runs in the second inning and four more in the sixth, while the Dodgers mounted a late push that fell short despite a three-run ninth.

Trea Turner was the central figure in Philadelphia's win, accounting for the two highest-leverage hitting plays of the game. His home run off Emmet Sheehan in the bottom of the second shifted win probability by 11.2 percent and gave the Phillies their early cushion. He struck again in the bottom of the sixth, connecting off Alex Vesia for another home run that added 15.8 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, the single largest swing of the night. Turner finished with a combined WPA of plus 28.2 percent and an RE24 of plus 5.0, both tops among all batters. The Dodgers briefly threatened to make the sixth inning a turning point of their own, with Andy Pages singling off Orion Kerkering for plus 13.6 percent and Max Muncy following with a double for plus 13.1 percent, but Brandon Marsh answered in the bottom half with a home run off Emmet Sheehan that added another 11.2 percent and kept Philadelphia firmly in control.

On the mound, Cristopher Sánchez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 10.9 percent, underpinning a Phillies staff that held together despite allowing 12 Dodger hits. Los Angeles finished without an error, going 12 for the game at the plate, but the damage came too late, with their three-run ninth arriving after the DiamondIQ model's estimate had already reached certainty for the home side.