Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the Miami Marlins 3-1 on July 19, 2026, at American Family Field, delivering all three of their runs in the bottom of the ninth inning after eight frames of near-total offensive silence. Miami's Pete Fairbanks entered to protect a 1-0 lead but could not hold it, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win probability, which opened at 64% before first pitch, climbed to 100% by the final out.

The decisive blow came from William Contreras, whose three-run home run off Fairbanks swung win probability by 67.2 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, the largest single-play shift of the game. The rally was set in motion when Brice Turang drew a walk from Fairbanks, adding 17.5 percentage points of win probability, and Jackson Chourio contributed to the frame as well, finishing with a WPA of plus-16.7. Contreras ended the night as the game's most impactful offensive performer at plus-62.7 WPA and plus-2.1 RE24. Earlier in the game, two plays had threatened to tilt things further toward Miami: Andrew Vaughn grounded into a double play in the bottom of the sixth off Eury Pérez, costing Milwaukee 20.5 percentage points, and Christian Yelich grounded out in the eighth off Michael Petersen, shedding another 12.9 points.

On the pitching side, Eury Pérez led all arms with a WPA of plus-38.4, holding Milwaukee off the board through his innings and keeping Miami's slim lead intact deep into the contest. Michael Petersen followed at plus-27.9 WPA, and Chad Patrick added plus-12.6. Despite holding a 1-0 lead through eight innings and generating six hits on the night, Miami's lone error and an inability to extend the lead left Fairbanks in a vulnerable position that the Brewers ultimately exploited in a single decisive burst.