St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 8-7 in ten innings on July 19, 2026 at Chase Field, completing a comeback from a five-run third-inning deficit. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 53 percent pre-game home win probability for Arizona, and that figure reached 100 percent by the final out.
St. Louis threatened to put the game away early, as Blaze Jordan's triple off Eduardo Rodriguez in the top of the third carried a win-probability swing of plus 15.1 percent and helped the Cardinals plate five runs in the frame. They added two more in the fifth to build a 7-0 lead heading into the sixth, but Arizona steadily chipped away with three in the sixth, two in the seventh, and two in the eighth. That eighth-inning uprising was punctuated by Nolan Arenado's home run off Gordon Graceffo, the single biggest swing of regulation at plus 38.8 percent win probability, which tied the game and forced extra innings. St. Louis nearly retook the lead in the tenth when Iván Herrera's single off Juan Morillo moved the Cardinals ahead by plus 32.0 percent on the win-probability meter, but Jordan Walker grounded into a double play on the very same Morillo, erasing that threat and swinging the game back minus 33.6 percent against St. Louis.
Max Kepler then ended it in the bottom of the tenth, lining a walk-off double off Luis Gastelum for a plus 41.4 percent win-probability swing, the single most decisive play of the night. Kepler finished as one of the three standout performers by WPA alongside Herrera, who led all batters at plus 38.1 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, and Arenado at plus 29.4 percent WPA. On the mound, Juan Morillo paced Arizona's relievers at plus 8.0 percent WPA despite surrendering Herrera's single, with Taylor Clarke and Ryne Stanek also contributing positively. The DiamondIQ model leans toward recognizing Herrera's clutch tenth-inning presence and Kepler's walk-off blow as the central factors in Arizona's final line of 8 runs on 10 hits.