Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
Baltimore took a 4-2 extra-inning victory over Houston at Daikin Park on July 18, 2026, completing a come-from-behind win that required 11 innings to settle. The game was scoreless through three frames before the Orioles scratched across a run in the fourth, and the Astros answered with one of their own in the seventh to knot it at one. The contest remained tied heading into extra innings, where the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win had climbed before collapsing entirely by the final out, moving from a 53 percent pre-game home win probability down to zero percent.
The tenth inning was the pivot point of the entire game. Yordan Alvarez gave Houston momentum with a double off Andrew Kittredge, a swing that shifted win probability 28.1 percent in the Astros' favor, but Jose Altuve immediately erased that threat by grounding into a double play, a minus-30.0 percent WPA event that swung the inning back toward Baltimore. The Orioles then capitalized in the same frame when Nick Allen singled off Kittredge, the highest-leverage play of the night at plus-45.5 percent WPA, tying or pushing ahead Baltimore's cause. The Orioles added two more in the eleventh, keyed by Tyler O'Neill's single off Enyel De Los Santos, which carried a 36.7 percent win-probability swing, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand's single off Steven Okert earlier in the sequence had already opened the door at plus-32.0 percent WPA.
On the individual ledger, Nick Allen finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus-47.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3, while Tyler O'Neill contributed plus-32.2 percent WPA and a plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Trevor Rogers led all pitchers with a plus-23.9 percent WPA contribution, supported by Josh Hader at plus-13.5 percent and AJ Blubaugh at plus-12.6 percent. Baltimore out-pitched Houston despite being out-hit nine to five, and the Astros' inability to convert late-game opportunities proved decisive in a tight, low-scoring affair.