Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Miami Marlins 8-6 on July 18, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent. Milwaukee built its advantage methodically through the middle innings, erasing an early Miami threat before pulling decisively away in the sixth and seventh frames. The Marlins scratched back for three runs in the ninth, but the damage had long been done, as Miami's three errors on the night compounded their offensive struggles against Brewers pitching.

The sixth inning was the decisive turning point of the game. With Calvin Faucher on the mound for Miami, Garrett Mitchell delivered a two-base hit that swung the DiamondIQ model's win probability by plus 17.5 percent, the single largest swing of the night. A Christian Yelich walk followed, adding another 9.3 percent, and Jackson Chourio capped the sequence with a single worth plus 12.3 percent in win probability, as Milwaukee plated four runs in the frame. The Brewers added two more in the seventh to push the lead to 8-3. The Marlins had shown early promise, scoring three runs in the second inning, but a Christian Yelich strikeout against Max Meyer in the bottom half carried a negative 10.9 percent swing that helped Milwaukee stabilize and regain control.

Mitchell was the clear offensive catalyst for Milwaukee, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 27.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.4, both tops among all batters. Chourio contributed plus 17.6 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Braden Shewmake added plus 9.3 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 in support. On the pitching side, Tyler Zuber, Trevor Megill, and Cade Gibson each contributed meaningful leverage work out of the bullpen, posting WPA figures of plus 6.8, plus 6.3, and plus 6.1 percent respectively, helping Milwaukee close out the win without allowing the Marlins' late rally to threaten the outcome.