New York Yankees at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Washington Nationals 5-3 at Nationals Park on July 12, 2026, handing Washington a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had given the home side a 47 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The Yankees broke through with two runs in the fifth inning and held Washington to a single run in the sixth and seventh, before Ben Rice delivered the decisive blow in the top of the eighth. His triple off Andrew Alvarez shifted win probability by 37.4 percentage points in New York's favor, the single largest swing of the contest, and proved to be the moment that effectively ended Washington's chances of mounting a comeback. José Tena and Austin Wells also contributed meaningfully to the New York offense, posting WPA figures of plus-13.0 and plus-11.1 respectively, helping the Yankees generate eight hits on the night against a Nationals pitching staff that otherwise kept things relatively contained.

On the Washington side, Curtis Mead provided a brief jolt in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Tim Hill that added 15.3 percentage points to the Nationals' win probability, and a Keibert Ruiz fielding error in the seventh briefly extended hope by 15.9 percentage points. However, Paul Blackburn shut the door in the final stages, recording a plus-16.0 WPA on the night, including a critical strikeout of Dylan Crews in the bottom of the eighth that swung win probability 12.9 points back toward New York. A flyout by Jorbit Vivas to end the ninth closed the book on Washington's final threat. Will Warren and Cade Cavalli also contributed positively for the Yankees pitching staff, with WPA figures of plus-11.5 and plus-6.9, ensuring that the Nationals' late-inning runs in the sixth and seventh came without further consequence. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Washington a zero percent chance of winning by game's end.