Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 8-4 at Great American Ball Park on July 12, 2026, handing Cincinnati a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected decisively, swinging from a 43 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. The Cubs scored in four separate innings, building their lead methodically before putting the game away with a four-run seventh that buried any realistic path to a Reds comeback.

The two most impactful moments of the game came from opposite dugouts and opposite ends of the scoring sequence. In the bottom of the third, Eugenio Suárez connected for a home run off Matthew Boyd, a swing that shifted win probability by 21.3 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor and gave the Reds a 4-2 lead at that stage. That momentum, however, proved short-lived. Alex Bregman's home run off Pierce Johnson in the top of the seventh was the single most consequential play of the night, adding 26.4 percentage points to Chicago's win probability and punctuating a four-run frame that also included a Pete Crow-Armstrong single off Sam Moll worth 13.0 percentage points. Earlier in the fourth, Kevin Alcántara's single off Andrew Abbott carried a 13.7-point swing, and Michael Busch's double in the same inning added another 11.7 points, making Abbott's outing a turning point in the Cubs' ability to retake control.

By WPA, Bregman finished as the game's top overall performer at plus-28.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.0, underscoring just how central his seventh-inning blast was to the outcome. Alcántara ranked second among position players at plus-15.3 percent WPA, while Suárez's plus-12.8 represented the lone bright spot in the Reds' ledger. On the mound, Chase Petty led Chicago's relievers at plus-4.0 percent WPA, followed by Gavin Hollowell at plus-2.9, as the Cubs' bullpen held Cincinnati scoreless after the third inning.