Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates routed the Milwaukee Brewers 14-5 at PNC Park on July 12, 2026, in a game that was effectively settled by the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving Pittsburgh a 44 percent chance of winning at home, but by the time the final out was recorded, that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly the Pirates dismantled Brewers starter Robert Gasser across two devastating innings.

The second inning was where the game turned most sharply. Henry Davis delivered the decisive blow of the contest, a home run off Gasser that shifted win probability by 10.6 percentage points according to the DiamondIQ model. The frame continued to damage Milwaukee, with a Jake Mangum flyout contributing a 10.1-point swing in Pittsburgh's favor and a Marcell Ozuna single adding another 8.3 points. Pittsburgh scored four runs in the inning. Ozuna then returned in the fourth to hit another home run off Gasser, a swing worth 8.0 percentage points of win probability, as Pittsburgh erupted for ten more runs to stretch the lead to an insurmountable 14-2. Christian Yelich managed a double off Paul Skenes in the top of the fourth to account for the most meaningful Brewers offensive moment of the day, worth 4.6 points, but Milwaukee could not generate a sustained threat.

Among individual performers, Ozuna led all batters with a combined WPA of plus-16.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.1, while Davis posted plus-14.0 WPA and the game's highest RE24 at plus-2.0. Mangum added plus-11.0 WPA. On the pitching side, Paul Skenes led Pittsburgh's staff with a plus-1.2 WPA figure, limiting the Brewers despite a late three-run Milwaukee eighth that trimmed the final margin to nine.