Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
Pittsburgh walked off with a 3-2 victory over Milwaukee at PNC Park on July 11, 2026, a game that swung decisively in the Pirates' favor in the fourth inning and held together through a tense ninth. The DiamondIQ model opened with Pittsburgh as a 43 percent home win probability, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent at the final out.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Esmerlyn Valdez connected for a home run off Shane Drohan, a swing that added 17.6 percentage points to Pittsburgh's win probability and gave the Pirates a 2-0 lead. Milwaukee answered in the fifth when Brice Turang laced a double off Bubba Chandler, a hit worth plus-21.3 percentage points from the Brewers' perspective and the single largest win-probability play of the game, pulling the visitors within range at 2-2. Pittsburgh reclaimed the lead for good in the sixth, as Bryan Reynolds singled off Drohan to plate what proved to be the winning run, a hit that added 11.4 percentage points to the home side's probability and ultimately proved to be the margin.
Reynolds finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-21.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Christian Yelich's ninth-inning walk off Mason Montgomery briefly renewed Milwaukee's hopes, adding 10.6 percentage points. However, Jackson Chourio's strikeout to end that same half-inning cost the Brewers 10.1 percentage points and effectively closed the door. On the mound, Mason Montgomery led all pitchers with a plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed by Isaac Mattson at plus-10.8 and Dennis Santana at plus-8.5, as Pittsburgh's bullpen ultimately secured the one-run win.