New York Yankees at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Washington Nationals 5-3 at Nationals Park on July 10, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before a dramatic ninth-inning collapse by Washington sealed the result. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a near coin-flip with the Nationals holding a 49% pre-game home win probability, and that figure fluctuated throughout the evening before landing at 0% once the final out was recorded.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth when Jazz Chisholm Jr. connected on a home run off Matt Krook, a swing that shifted win probability by +66.4 percentage points and stands as the single most impactful play of the game by a wide margin. Washington had built momentum in the bottom of the seventh with back-to-back home runs from Keibert Ruiz off Tim Hill (+18.1%) and James Wood off Tim Hill (+17.1%), giving the Nationals a brief surge that pushed them within striking distance and temporarily swung the game in their favor. However, Ben Rice's groundout into a double play in the top of the eighth, which cost New York 16.4 percentage points of win probability off Tom Cosgrove, kept Washington in contention heading into the ninth before Chisholm's decisive blow unraveled the bullpen.

Chisholm finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +61.3% with a RE24 of +1.2, while James Wood led all players in RE24 at +1.8 despite his team falling short, accumulating a +37.1% WPA across a game in which he was Washington's most dangerous offensive presence. Jasson Domínguez contributed a modest +12.7% WPA for New York. On the mound, Fernando Cruz led Yankees relievers at +17.4% WPA, followed by Zack Littell at +12.0% and Ryan Weathers at +7.4%, as the New York bullpen ultimately steadied after allowing the seventh-inning surge.