Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 on July 9, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, a taut pitching duel that remained scoreless through seven innings before a single run in the top of the eighth proved to be all either side would need. The DiamondIQ model opened the night giving the Reds a 44 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had fallen to zero.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the eighth when Justin Crawford singled off Brady Singer, a hit that shifted win probability 15.4 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor and ultimately produced the game's only run. Crawford finished as the third-most impactful batter by WPA at plus-11.5 percent, while Singer still earned a positive WPA grade of plus-17.4 percent despite surrendering the go-ahead hit, a reflection of how thoroughly he had suppressed the Philadelphia lineup to that point. The Reds mounted their most credible threat in the bottom of the ninth against Jhoan Duran, with Spencer Steer reaching on a hit by pitch that swung win probability 17.5 points toward Cincinnati and Noelvi Marte logging the top single-play WPA mark on his groundout at plus-18.8 percent, a figure that reflects how tense the base-out state had become. Eugenio Suárez's strikeout and Tyler Stephenson's strikeout, worth negative-17.0 and negative-14.9 percentage points respectively, extinguished the rally and closed out the Reds' last realistic chance.
On the pitching side, Jesús Luzardo led all players with a WPA of plus-34.4 percent, the model's clearest signal of who most controlled the game's outcome, followed by Jonathan Bowlan at plus-23.3 percent. Together they built a foundation that left the Phillies needing only that single Crawford-sparked eighth-inning run to complete the shutout. Cincinnati managed just three hits on the night and never put a runner across, making this a game defined almost entirely by the arms on both sides and one quiet but consequential moment in the eighth.