Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians beat the Minnesota Twins 5-2 at Target Field on July 9, 2026, handing the home side a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate never anticipated when it opened the night at a 52 percent home win probability. Cleveland out-hit Minnesota six to three without committing an error, and the Guardians' bullpen combination of Gavin Williams and Hunter Gaddis kept the Twins from mounting anything sustained after a brief fifth-inning flicker.
The decisive sequence came across the sixth and seventh innings. Chase DeLauter connected on a solo home run off Kendry Rojas in the top of the sixth, a swing the DiamondIQ model rated as a plus-14.3 percent win-probability shift that moved Cleveland firmly into control. One inning later, Brayan Rocchio drove a double off Rojas that generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-22.2 percent, part of a two-run Cleveland seventh that effectively closed the door. Minnesota did answer in the bottom half when Royce Lewis hit a home run off Gavin Williams, a plus-11.9 percent swing that briefly narrowed the gap, but Williams had already navigated the critical bottom of the fifth by striking out Trevor Larnach to strand a runner, a sequence that produced a minus-9.1 percent shift against the Twins after Tristan Gray's run-scoring single had given Minnesota its first lead.
Among individual performers, Rocchio finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-15.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while DeLauter added plus-10.6 percent and plus-0.6 RE24. Ironically, Royce Lewis led all batters by WPA at plus-20.6 percent and plus-1.0 RE24 despite playing for the losing side, his home run representing the only genuine threat Minnesota could sustain. On the pitching side, Gavin Williams led Cleveland's staff with a plus-18.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Hunter Gaddis at plus-13.3 percent and Bailey Ober at plus-11.7 percent, a collective effort that held the Twins to three hits and ensured the DiamondIQ model's final home win probability landed at zero.