Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8-4 at Busch Stadium on July 9, 2026, building an insurmountable early lead and holding off a Cardinals surge to secure the road win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving St. Louis a 42% chance to win at home, but that probability eroded steadily before reaching 0% by the final out.
The decisive stretch came in the third inning, when Milwaukee stacked four runs against Andre Pallante. Brice Turang's single contributed a win-probability swing of plus 9.5%, and Jake Bauers followed with a home run that shifted the model's estimate by plus 10.3%, pushing the Brewers into firm command. St. Louis briefly clawed back in the sixth, when Jordan Walker's home run off Chad Patrick represented the single biggest play of the game at plus 17.3% win probability, trimming the deficit and giving the Cardinals a window. That window closed quickly, however, as the Cardinals were unable to sustain the momentum, and Milwaukee added insurance on a Brice Turang home run in the seventh off Luis Gastelum, worth plus 9.8%. A walk drawn by Iván Herrera in the bottom of the eighth off Aaron Ashby registered plus 10.1% for St. Louis, but by then the deficit was too steep to overcome.
Turang was Milwaukee's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 15.8% and an RE24 of plus 1.8, his contributions spread across both his third-inning single and seventh-inning home run. Bauers ranked second among batters at plus 11.0% WPA and led the group with a plus 2.0 RE24, while JJ Wetherholt added plus 10.4% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Logan Henderson led Milwaukee's staff with plus 7.0% WPA, supported by Aaron Ashby at plus 5.2% and Gordon Graceffo at plus 3.0%. The Brewers finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, while the Cardinals managed only 5 hits against Milwaukee's pitching.