Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Philadelphia Phillies a decisive 11-5 defeat on July 8, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, turning what began as an even contest into a comfortable home victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cincinnati a 45 percent chance of winning, but that figure climbed steadily and closed at 100 percent as the Reds built an insurmountable lead through the middle innings.

The turning point came in the bottom of the third, when Sal Stewart connected on a home run off Alan Rangel that shifted win probability by plus-17.2 percent in Cincinnati's favor. The fourth inning proved even more damaging for Philadelphia, as the Reds piled on five runs to effectively put the game away. Elly De La Cruz launched a home run off Tanner Banks for a plus-16.9 percent swing, Edwin Arroyo followed with a run-producing triple off Banks worth plus-7.2 percent, and Noelvi Marte added another home run off Rangel for an additional plus-11.4 percent shift. The Phillies' best chance to stem the damage came in the top of the fourth, but Gabriel Rincones Jr. grounded into a double play off Chase Burns, a swing of minus-8.7 percent that extinguished any Philadelphia momentum at a critical moment.

Stewart finished as the game's top positional performer by WPA at plus-22.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while De La Cruz posted plus-22.5 percent WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus-2.6. Marte contributed plus-13.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5, giving Cincinnati three hitters who each delivered outsized individual impact. On the mound, Max Lazar led Reds pitchers with a plus-1.3 percent WPA contribution, while Chase Burns added plus-0.8 percent for Philadelphia despite the loss.