Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | - | 10 | 13 | 1 |
The Story
San Diego defeated Arizona 10-4 at Petco Park on July 8, 2026, a game that was never truly in doubt after the Padres steadily built their lead across the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving San Diego a 55 percent chance of winning and closed at 100 percent, reflecting just how thoroughly the Padres controlled the contest. Arizona managed four runs on ten hits but an error compounded their troubles, while San Diego posted ten runs on thirteen hits with an error of their own.
The game turned decisively on a sequence of plays against Arizona starter Jose Cabrera in the third through fifth innings. The single most impactful swing came in the bottom of the fifth, when Xander Bogaerts singled off Cabrera to add 15.1 percent to San Diego's win probability. Earlier, Miguel Andujar had delivered a double in the fourth inning worth 13.0 percent, and a Jackson Merrill groundout in the third, though an out, generated 7.9 percent in win probability in context of the situation. Arizona's best chance to claw back was blunted in the top of the fourth, when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounded into a double play off Michael King, swinging 6.1 percent away from the Diamondbacks.
Among the individual standouts, Jackson Merrill led all batters with a plus-11.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Andujar contributed plus-8.8 percent WPA and plus-2.4 RE24 in a strong two-way performance at the plate. Luis Campusano added plus-7.4 percent WPA. On the mound, Michael King was the clear anchor for San Diego, finishing with a plus-19.1 percent WPA, the top mark among all pitchers, and the model leans on his outing as the single most consequential performance of the night. Brandyn Garcia added plus-2.2 percent in relief, while Kyle Hart was neutral at 0.0 percent.