Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Baltimore Orioles 9-7 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 8, 2026, overcoming a Baltimore lead with a pair of late-inning surges that shifted the game's outcome decisively. The DiamondIQ model opened the night giving the Orioles a 43% chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, a reflection of how thoroughly Chicago controlled the game's critical junctures.

The pivotal sequences came in the fifth and seventh innings. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Carson Kelly struck back-to-back in the top of the fifth against Dean Kremer, the former adding +12.7% and the latter +12.3% to Chicago's win probability, erasing the two-run Baltimore advantage that Pete Alonso's fourth-inning home run off Colin Rea had briefly built. That Alonso blast, which swung win probability +17.3% in Baltimore's favor, represented the Orioles' best chance to seize control, but it proved short-lived. Seiya Suzuki then delivered the knockout blow in the seventh, launching a home run off Grant Wolfram that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at +21.0%, pushing Chicago's five-run frame to its decisive conclusion. Alonso's groundout to end the ninth added a technical +14.4% to Baltimore's ledger, but by that point the deficit was insurmountable.

Crow-Armstrong finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating +31.0% in win probability added and a +2.4 RE24, while Alonso led Baltimore at +28.7% WPA despite his team's loss, a reflection of how much his early production meant before Chicago's bullpen and offense overwhelmed the Orioles' pitching staff. Jackson Holliday contributed +15.9% WPA and +1.4 RE24 for Baltimore. On the mound, Rico Garcia led Chicago's relievers at +3.5% WPA, narrowly ahead of Drew Pomeranz at +3.4%.