Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-1 at Busch Stadium on July 8, 2026, handing Milwaukee a lopsided loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 43 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. St. Louis built its lead methodically, scoring two in the first, one in the fourth, and two more in the sixth, while the Brewers managed their lone run only in the seventh. Each team finished with seven hits, but Milwaukee's error compounded its troubles against a Cardinals club that made the most of its opportunities.
The decisive swings of win probability centered on José Fermín and Alec Burleson. Fermín's fourth-inning home run off Kyle Harrison was the single biggest play of the game, shifting win probability by plus 8.5 percent in St. Louis's favor, and he also registered a plus-6.3 percent flyout in the first that kept the Cardinals in favorable position early. Burleson followed with a sixth-inning home run off Jared Koenig worth plus 7.6 percent, effectively closing out any realistic Milwaukee comeback. On the other side, Greg Jones's strikeout against Michael McGreevy in the top of the second was the Brewers' costliest moment at minus 8.1 percent, a missed opportunity that proved emblematic of Milwaukee's inability to generate pressure.
Fermín led all position players with a plus-14.7 percent WPA and a plus-0.8 RE24, while Burleson contributed plus-7.1 percent WPA and led the lineup with a plus-2.2 RE24. Pedro Pagés added plus-5.2 percent WPA, though his minus-0.6 RE24 reflected his more situational contribution. The pitching story belonged to Michael McGreevy, who posted a commanding plus-30.6 percent WPA to pace all pitchers, with Grant Anderson and Luis Gastelum each adding plus-2.2 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting McGreevy's early dominance, particularly his handling of the Brewers in the second inning, as the foundational reason St. Louis never relinquished control of this contest.