Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the St. Louis Cardinals a decisive 10-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on July 7, 2026, a result that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 42 percent home win probability down to zero by the final out. Milwaukee posted all ten of its runs across the third, fifth, and seventh innings, generating ten hits without an error while Cardinals starter Hunter Dobbins absorbed early damage and the bullpen could not hold the game together late.
The most pivotal sequence began in the top of the fifth, when Luis Lara singled off Dobbins to swing win probability 17.4 points in Milwaukee's favor, a blow that proved to be the game's second-largest single play by that measure. Cooper Pratt had already set the tone in the third with a triple off Dobbins that moved the needle 9.1 points, and the Cardinals briefly responded in the bottom of the sixth when Nelson Velázquez launched a home run off Robert Gasser, a swing worth plus-22.1 percent win probability that represented the largest single-play shift of the night, though it arrived too late to alter the game's trajectory in any meaningful way. The Brewers then put the contest away in the seventh, with Joey Ortiz connecting on a home run off Jared Shuster for a 13.4-point win probability swing and Brice Turang following with a double worth another 10.9 points, capping a seven-run frame that buried St. Louis.
Among individual performers, Velázquez led all batters with a plus-20.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2 despite representing the Cardinals' lone highlight, while Lara topped Milwaukee's lineup with plus-18.2 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 and Ortiz added plus-14.0 percent WPA for the Brewers. On the pitching side, Gasser was the only Milwaukee arm credited with a meaningful WPA figure at plus-1.0 percent, with Craig Yoho and Bryan Torres each finishing at 0.0, a reflection of a game that was decided well before the bullpen arms took the mound. The DiamondIQ model favors Milwaukee's performance as the clear controlling force in this contest from the third inning onward.