MLB Recap · July 7, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

TOR9
Final
SF3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TOR0350000019130
SF011010000390

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the San Francisco Giants a 9-3 defeat at Oracle Park on July 7, 2026, breaking open what had been an even contest early and never relinquishing control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game at a 49 percent home win probability for San Francisco, but that figure was effectively erased before the end of the third inning, collapsing to zero percent by the final out.

The decisive sequence came in the second and third innings, when Toronto did the bulk of its damage against Giants starter Trevor McDonald. Jonatan Clase provided the signature blow, a home run in the top of the second that swung win probability 12.0 percent in Toronto's favor. San Francisco had a chance to respond in the bottom half, but Drew Cavanaugh's flyout off Spencer Miles represented a 7.2 percent swing against the Giants, and Victor Bericoto's single provided only a modest 6.3 percent boost as the inning ultimately fell short of a meaningful rally. Toronto then poured it on in the top of the third, with Sean Keys delivering a single that added another 7.0 percent to the Blue Jays' win probability, extending what had become an insurmountable cushion. Luis Arraez doubled in the bottom of the fifth off Patrick Corbin to add a 5.4 percent swing for San Francisco, though the Giants trailed by too wide a margin for it to matter.

Clase finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a total WPA of plus-13.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7 to anchor the Blue Jays' attack. Sean Keys and Brandon Valenzuela also contributed meaningfully, posting WPA figures of plus-7.6 and plus-6.6 percent respectively. On the pitching side, Spencer Miles led Toronto's staff with a WPA of plus-4.0 percent, while Patrick Corbin added plus-2.8 percent in relief work. Toronto finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while San Francisco managed 9 hits but could not convert against a Blue Jays pitching staff that held firm after a brief second-inning hiccup.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TOR bats firstFinalSF win %TOR win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 49% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jonatan Clase Home Run
Top 2nd · off Trevor McDonald
+12.0%
Drew Cavanaugh Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Spencer Miles
-7.2%
Sean Keys Single
Top 3rd · off Trevor McDonald
+7.0%
Victor Bericoto Single
Bot 2nd · off Spencer Miles
+6.3%
Luis Arraez Double
Bot 5th · off Patrick Corbin
+5.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Jonatan Clase+13.9%+2.7 RE24
Sean Keys+7.6%+0.8 RE24
Brandon Valenzuela+6.6%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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