Houston Astros at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Washington Nationals 6-3 at Nationals Park on July 7, 2026, completing a road win that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had at just 44 percent before first pitch. Washington held an early edge, scratching out single runs in the first and third innings to carry a 2-1 lead into the fourth, but Houston's offense unraveled Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez in the top half of that frame. A Cam Smith walk extended the inning with a win-probability swing of plus 6.3 percent, Nick Allen followed with a single that moved the needle another 12.6 percent in Houston's favor, and Christian Vázquez capped the damage with a sacrifice fly worth plus 7.3 percent, part of a three-run surge that gave the Astros a lead they would not relinquish. Vázquez added another single off Alvarez in the sixth for a further 7.5 percent swing, accounting for a combined plus 14.2 percent WPA on the day.

Jose Altuve provided critical insurance in the eighth inning, connecting on a home run off Riley Cornelio that registered a plus 5.4 percent win-probability swing and pushed the lead to 6-2. On the mound, Houston's relief corps preserved the outcome efficiently. Steven Okert was the most impactful arm out of the bullpen, contributing plus 11.9 percent WPA, with Bryan King and Enyel De Los Santos adding plus 6.3 and plus 6.0 percent respectively. Washington outhit Houston 11 to 6 on the night, but the Nationals were unable to convert that contact advantage into runs at the moments that mattered most. Christian Walker rounded out Houston's offensive contributors with a plus 6.7 percent WPA and a game-best plus 1.3 RE24, reflecting his ability to affect run expectancy beyond the win-probability metric alone.