Houston Astros at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 2 |
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 12 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros 12-11 on July 6, 2026, at Nationals Park in a high-scoring contest that saw the lead change hands multiple times before Washington held on. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Nationals a 57 percent home win probability, and by the final out that estimate had reached 100 percent. The Astros managed 11 runs on 12 hits but committed two errors, while Washington scored 12 on 13 hits without an error, ultimately making the difference in a game that was anything but settled through eight innings.
The third and fifth innings were where the Nationals built their foundation. CJ Abrams launched a home run off Mike Burrows in the bottom of the third, adding 18.2 percent to Washington's win probability, and Curtis Mead followed with a single off the same pitcher that swung the model another 13.8 percent in the Nationals' favor as Washington scored five runs that frame. James Wood then delivered a home run off AJ Blubaugh in the bottom of the fifth, a six-run inning that pushed the model's estimate sharply and proved critical as it shifted the win probability by 18.6 percent. Houston had kept pace early, with Jose Altuve hitting a home run off Miles Mikolas in the top of the second for a 13.2 percent swing, but the Astros could not match Washington's cluster scoring. Brice Matthews hit a home run off Cole Henry in the top of the eighth to add four Astros runs and move the needle 18.9 percent, but Washington's cushion proved sufficient.
Among individual performers, CJ Abrams finished with a WPA of plus-27.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Curtis Mead posted plus-26.6 percent WPA and led the group with a plus-3.0 RE24. James Wood was the most impactful run-producer by RE24, finishing at plus-4.6 alongside a plus-23.2 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Clayton Beeter was Washington's most effective arm by WPA at plus-17.4 percent, while Nate Pearson was nearly neutral at minus-0.1 percent. Enyel De Los Santos was the most costly Nationals pitcher at minus-4.5 percent, though Washington's offense generated more than enough to absorb it.