MLB Recap · July 5, 2026

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

BOS7
Final
LAA5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS0230002007100
LAA210000011591

The Story

The Boston Red Sox overcame a scrappy Los Angeles Angels team at Angel Stadium on July 5, 2026, winning 7-5 in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win drop from 48% before first pitch all the way to 0% by the final out. Boston built its lead through early and sustained offensive production, posting runs in five of nine innings while holding off repeated Angels rallies.

The decisive blow came in the top of the third, when Willson Contreras launched a home run off Ryan Johnson that swung win probability by 29.5 percentage points in Boston's favor, the single largest WPA play of the game. Contreras finished as the game's top offensive performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 26.6 and an RE24 of plus 2.5. Jarren Duran had set an earlier tone with a second-inning home run off Johnson that added 8.9 percentage points to Boston's win probability, and Duran ended the night with a WPA of plus 6.9 and an RE24 of plus 2.0. The Angels showed some life in the bottom of the second when Zach Neto doubled off Ranger Suarez to add 5.7 percentage points to their win probability, and they tacked on runs in the eighth and ninth, but were never able to fully close the gap.

Boston's bullpen was instrumental in preserving the outcome. Tyron Guerrero led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 14.0, followed by José Fermin at plus 8.6 and Greg Weissert at plus 8.4. The final drama came in the bottom of the ninth when Aroldis Chapman struck out Denzer Guzman, a moment that added 14.4 percentage points to Boston's win probability and represented the game's second-largest individual play swing. Masataka Yoshida's single off Chase Silseth in the seventh, which added 5.6 percentage points, provided an insurance cushion that proved meaningful as Los Angeles pushed across a run in each of its final two frames.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalLAA win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 48% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Willson Contreras Home Run
Top 3rd · off Ryan Johnson
+29.5%
Denzer Guzman Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Aroldis Chapman
+14.4%
Jarren Duran Home Run
Top 2nd · off Ryan Johnson
+8.9%
Zach Neto Double
Bot 2nd · off Ranger Suarez
+5.7%
Masataka Yoshida Single
Top 7th · off Chase Silseth
+5.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Willson Contreras+26.6%+2.5 RE24
Denzer Guzman+21.1%+0.8 RE24
Jarren Duran+6.9%+2.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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