MLB Recap · July 4, 2026

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

MIN11
Final
NYY4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN32010014011110
NYY000130000472

The Story

The Minnesota Twins handed the New York Yankees a lopsided 11-4 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 4, 2026, erasing a pregame home-win probability of 62 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and driving it to zero by the final out. Minnesota wasted no time establishing control, plating three runs in the first inning and adding two more in the second to build an early 5-0 lead that New York never meaningfully threatened. The Twins added a run in the fourth, let the Yankees briefly respond with three in the fifth, then closed the door with a four-run eighth that rendered the final margin emphatic. Minnesota finished with 11 hits and zero errors, while New York committed two errors across a seven-hit effort.

The game's most consequential sequence by win-probability impact came in the bottom of the second, where Ryan McMahon's strikeout against Zebby Matthews swung win probability 14.5 percent against the Yankees, the single largest shift of the night. Max Schuemann's home run off Matthews in the bottom of the fifth moved the needle 10.5 percent in New York's favor and represented the Yankees' best moment of the evening, but it arrived too late and with too little support. Paul Goldschmidt's flyout in the bottom of the sixth against Taylor Rogers carried a 12.1 percent swing against the home side, and Amed Rosario's strikeout in that same inning off Travis Adams added another 10.7 percent drop, effectively sealing whatever faint hope remained in the Bronx.

On the individual ledger, Schuemann led all batters with a plus-16.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Josh Bell posted the top RE24 figure among position players at plus-2.5 alongside a plus-10.6 percent WPA. Kody Clemens contributed plus-10.5 percent WPA and a plus-2.2 RE24, his second-inning strikeout having generated a 12.0 percent positive swing for Minnesota in that frame. On the mound, Zebby Matthews paced the pitching staff with a plus-15.3 percent WPA, with Taylor Rogers adding plus-11.5 percent and Andrew Morris contributing plus-7.0 percent as the Twins bullpen held New York to one run over the final four innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalNYY win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 61.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ryan McMahon Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Zebby Matthews
-14.5%
Paul Goldschmidt Flyout
Bot 6th · off Taylor Rogers
-12.1%
Kody Clemens Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Brendan Beck
+12.0%
Amed Rosario Strikeout
Bot 6th · off Travis Adams
-10.7%
Max Schuemann Home Run
Bot 5th · off Zebby Matthews
+10.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Max Schuemann+16.0%+2.4 RE24
Josh Bell+10.6%+2.5 RE24
Kody Clemens+10.5%+2.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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