Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the Cincinnati Reds an 8-5 defeat on July 4, 2026, at Great American Ball Park, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 53 percent pre-game home win probability for Cincinnati and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. Baltimore scored three in the first inning to grab an early lead, but Cincinnati answered with three of its own in the bottom of the second, briefly shifting momentum back toward the home side. The Orioles then put the game away with a decisive five-run fourth inning against Hunter Greene, and Cincinnati never recovered despite tacking on a run in the seventh and working a walk in the ninth.

The decisive blow of the contest came in that fourth inning, when Adley Rutschman doubled off Hunter Greene for a swing of plus 20.3 percent in win probability, the single largest play of the game. A Jackson Holliday walk later in the same frame added another 8.1 percent, compounding the damage Greene absorbed before departing. Cincinnati's best moments came in the bottom of the second, where TJ Friedl's triple off Brandon Young lifted the Reds by 9.4 percent and Jose Trevino followed with a double worth 9.2 percent, but those swings proved insufficient to offset what Baltimore had built and would continue to build.

Rutschman finished as the game's most impactful individual, posting a plus 26.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, numbers that reflect both his clutch double and his broader offensive contribution throughout the lineup. Colton Cowser added plus 9.4 percent WPA and Jackson Holliday contributed plus 8.4 percent, giving Baltimore a deep group of offensive contributors. On the pitching side, Grant Wolfram led Orioles relievers with plus 5.5 percent WPA, followed closely by Andrew Kittredge at plus 5.2 percent, as Baltimore's bullpen protected the lead through the final innings and secured the road victory.