Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Chicago White Sox 4-3 in ten innings on July 3, 2026, at Progressive Field, completing a comeback that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the game's final out. Both offenses were quiet through the first four innings before Chicago broke the scoreless tie in the fifth, when Miguel Vargas launched a home run off Gavin Williams that swung win probability 32.5 points in the White Sox's favor and stood as the single biggest play of the game by that measure. Cleveland answered with a run in the third that had already been on the board, and the Guardians clawed back in the seventh when Steven Kwan's single off Bryan Hudson shifted things 14.2 points toward Cleveland, followed almost immediately by Austin Hedges connecting for another single off Hudson worth 13.3 points, a two-run inning that drew the Guardians level and set up the extra-innings finish.

The White Sox could not push across a go-ahead run in the tenth, with Sam Antonacci's flyout off Erik Sabrowski representing the highest-leverage moment of that half-inning at plus 14.3 points for Chicago's win probability, a figure that ultimately came to nothing. Travis Bazzana then ended it in the bottom of the tenth with a walk-off single off Sean Newcomb that carried a 29.5-point win-probability swing, the second-largest play of the night. By WPA, Vargas led all batters at plus 32.2 with a RE24 of plus 3.0 despite finishing on the losing side, while Bazzana topped Cleveland's lineup at plus 31.2 and Kwan added plus 21.8. On the mound, Cade Smith led Cleveland's relievers at plus 13.5 in WPA, followed by Colin Holderman at plus 10.6 and Chris Murphy at plus 7.5, three contributors whose combined efforts bridged the gap between the Guardians' deficit and Bazzana's decisive blow.