Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles shut out the Cincinnati Reds 3-0 at Great American Ball Park on July 3, 2026, with all three runs scoring in the third inning to hand Cincinnati a home loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had originally framed as a 54 percent favorite's opportunity before ending at zero percent. The decisive moment of the game came when Samuel Basallo drove a home run off Brady Singer in the top of the third, a swing worth plus-16.9 percent in win probability and the single largest play of the contest. Adley Rutschman added a double off Singer in the same frame, contributing another 5.9 percent to Baltimore's probability advantage, while Pete Alonso's grounded into double play in that inning swung 9.2 percent back against the Reds and further tightened their path to a comeback before it had a chance to develop.

Trevor Rogers was the central figure on the mound, posting a plus-27.7 percent WPA that led all pitchers on either side and anchored the shutout effort. Rico Garcia followed and contributed plus-12.3 percent in support, with Yennier Cano closing things out at plus-5.2 percent. The Reds managed four hits but were unable to convert, and their lone error compounded the damage. Elly De La Cruz finished as Cincinnati's most valuable batter by WPA at plus-11.2 percent on the strength of a late groundout that represented a mild probability swing in the ninth, though it ultimately did nothing to alter the outcome. Basallo led all batters in the game with a plus-13.0 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, making the third-inning home run the authoritative moment that settled the result.