Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 6-1 defeat at Citizens Bank Park on July 2, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model projected as a 60 percent pregame home win probability into a zero percent finish. Pittsburgh spread 14 hits across the game while committing no errors, holding Philadelphia to just four hits and one run in a wire-to-wire pitching performance anchored by Carmen Mlodzinski, whose work contributed a model-leading plus-22.1 percent in win probability added among Pittsburgh's starters.
The decisive turn came in the top of the seventh inning against reliever José Alvarado, where Esmerlyn Valdez delivered a triple that swung win probability by plus-22.0 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Nick Gonzales followed with a single off Alvarado worth an additional plus-12.3 percent, capping a two-run frame that effectively sealed the outcome. Philadelphia's brightest moment came in the bottom of the third, when Bryce Harper doubled off Jared Jones for a plus-10.2 percent swing, accounting for the Phillies' lone run scored in that inning. Pittsburgh answered in the eighth when Endy Rodríguez hit a home run off Lou Trivino worth plus-9.4 percent, extending the lead further. It is worth noting that Valdez also produced the game's single biggest negative play, a seventh-inning double play in the third that cost Pittsburgh minus-14.1 percent, though he recovered to finish as the second-leading batter by WPA at plus-10.7 percent.
Nick Gonzales led all position players with a plus-14.5 percent win probability added and a plus-1.7 RE24, providing both timely hitting and run-production efficiency throughout the lineup. Brandon Lowe contributed plus-9.4 percent WPA and a plus-0.8 RE24. On the mound, Alan Rangel posted plus-11.2 percent WPA in support of Mlodzinski, and Jared Jones added plus-8.3 percent despite surrendering the Harper double, a sign that Pittsburgh's pitching staff largely contained Philadelphia's offense across nine innings.