MLB Recap · July 1, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

TB4
Final
KC0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TB2000010104112
KC000000000060

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Kansas City Royals 4-0 at Kauffman Stadium on July 1, 2026, holding Kansas City to six hits and never allowing a run as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Royals win fell from 34 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Tampa Bay scored two runs in the first inning, then added single runs in the sixth and eighth to build a comfortable cushion, finishing with 11 hits against two errors of their own.

The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth, when Cedric Mullins hit a home run off Seth Lugo that swung win probability 10.9 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, effectively removing any remaining doubt about the outcome. Kansas City's best chances to respond were repeatedly extinguished by Salvador Perez, who grounded into double plays in both the fourth and ninth innings, costing the Royals 6.4 and 8.2 percent in win probability respectively. A seventh-inning single by Jac Caglianone briefly offered a glimmer of hope, adding 5.9 percent to Kansas City's chances, but a Starling Marte forceout on the very next meaningful sequence erased 5.2 percent and ended the threat.

Shane McClanahan was the dominant force of the afternoon for Tampa Bay, leading all pitchers with a win-probability contribution of plus-30.8 percent as the DiamondIQ model's top performer by that measure. Mullins finished as the top offensive contributor with a combined WPA of plus-12.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Caglianone and Kameron Misner also added positive value on the offensive side. The Rays' pitching staff, anchored by McClanahan and supported by Lugo and Cole Sulser, held firm throughout to complete the shutout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalKC win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 34.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Cedric Mullins Home Run
Top 6th · off Seth Lugo
+10.9%
Salvador Perez Grounded Into DP
Bot 9th · off Kevin Kelly
-8.2%
Salvador Perez Grounded Into DP
Bot 4th · off Shane McClanahan
-6.4%
Jac Caglianone Single
Bot 7th · off Cole Sulser
+5.9%
Starling Marte Forceout
Bot 7th · off Cole Sulser
-5.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Cedric Mullins+12.4%+1.1 RE24
Jac Caglianone+4.9%+0.2 RE24
Kameron Misner+4.5%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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