Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox dismantled the Baltimore Orioles 9-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 30, 2026, with a seven-run third inning that effectively ended any competitive tension. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Baltimore holding a 45 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero percent by game's end, a collapse driven almost entirely by a catastrophic frame for Orioles starter Trey Gibson.

The third inning was the game within the game. Colson Montgomery delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Gibson that added 16.4 percent to Chicago's win probability and stood as the single most impactful play of the afternoon. Junior Perez followed with another home run off the same pitcher, swinging the probability an additional 11.3 percent in the White Sox's favor. From that point the outcome was no longer in question. Jacob Gonzalez contributed a single worth 5.0 percent in win probability, while Andrew Benintendi added another single at plus 3.9 percent and Chase Meidroth drew a walk that moved the needle an identical 3.9 percent. All five of the top win-probability plays in the game were recorded in that one inning against Gibson.

On the individual ledger, Montgomery finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 16.1 percent, with Perez close behind at plus 10.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.1, reflecting his contributions in run-expectancy terms beyond the home run itself. Gonzalez posted a RE24 of plus 1.9 to round out Chicago's most productive bats. On the mound, Tyler Schweitzer led White Sox pitchers with a WPA of plus 1.4 percent, followed by Erick Fedde at plus 0.8 percent and Albert Suárez at plus 0.2 percent, as the staff held Baltimore to three runs on nine hits the rest of the way.